Our model assigns a win probability of 90% to this outcome. Historically, 1X tips have settled at 78.9% over the last 90 days (38 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
78.9% on 1X90% probability
Over the last 90 days, 1X tips have returned 30 wins from 38 settled tips (78.9%). This is above our site-wide average of 75.2%, indicating this market type performs particularly well in our analysis.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Thun vs Dinamo ZagrebOver 1.5
Our model assigns a win probability of 90% to this outcome. Historically, Over 1.5 tips have settled at 71.7% over the last 90 days (46 tips graded). In UCL Qualifiers, our record stands at 80% over the same period. These factors together support the recommendation.
71.7% on Over 1.590% probability80% in UCL Qualifiers
Over the last 90 days, Over 1.5 tips have returned 33 wins from 46 settled tips (71.7%). This is broadly in line with our site-wide average of 75.2%.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Goteborg vs LevadiaOver 1.5
Our model assigns a win probability of 90% to this outcome. Historically, Over 1.5 tips have settled at 71.7% over the last 90 days (46 tips graded). In Conference League Qualifier, our record stands at 80% over the same period. These factors together support the recommendation.
71.7% on Over 1.590% probability80% in Conference League Qualifier
Over the last 90 days, Over 1.5 tips have returned 33 wins from 46 settled tips (71.7%). This is broadly in line with our site-wide average of 75.2%.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Fenerbahce vs Gornik ZabrzeOver 2.5
Our model assigns a win probability of 80% to this outcome. Historically, Over 2.5 tips have settled at 72.8% over the last 90 days (81 tips graded). In UCL Qualifiers, our record stands at 80% over the same period. These factors together support the recommendation.
72.8% on Over 2.580% probability80% in UCL Qualifiers
Over the last 90 days, Over 2.5 tips have returned 59 wins from 81 settled tips (72.8%). This is broadly in line with our site-wide average of 75.2%.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Fylkir vs AftureldingOver 2.5
Our model assigns a win probability of 80% to this outcome. Historically, Over 2.5 tips have settled at 72.8% over the last 90 days (81 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
72.8% on Over 2.580% probability
Over the last 90 days, Over 2.5 tips have returned 59 wins from 81 settled tips (72.8%). This is broadly in line with our site-wide average of 75.2%.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Mjallby vs Lincoln Red Imps1
Our model assigns a win probability of 50% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 75.4% over the last 90 days (280 tips graded). In UCL Qualifiers, our record stands at 80% over the same period. These factors together support the recommendation.
75.4% on 150% probability80% in UCL Qualifiers
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 211 wins from 280 settled tips (75.4%). This is above our site-wide average of 75.2%, indicating this market type performs particularly well in our analysis.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Santa Fe vs U. Magdalena1
Our model assigns a win probability of 50% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 75.4% over the last 90 days (280 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
75.4% on 150% probability
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 211 wins from 280 settled tips (75.4%). This is above our site-wide average of 75.2%, indicating this market type performs particularly well in our analysis.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
The stated probability of 90% sits comfortably above the threshold at which this site's tips have historically performed well. 1X is running in line with the site average (78.9%). No significant deviation either way. Tuesdays have a measurably higher success rate in the historical data. This provides a minor additional positive signal.
The stated probability of 90% sits comfortably above the threshold at which this site's tips have historically performed well. Over 1.5 is running in line with the site average (71.7%). No significant deviation either way. Tuesdays have a measurably higher success rate in the historical data. This provides a minor additional positive signal.
The stated probability of 90% sits comfortably above the threshold at which this site's tips have historically performed well. Over 1.5 is running in line with the site average (71.7%). No significant deviation either way. Tuesdays have a measurably higher success rate in the historical data. This provides a minor additional positive signal.
The stated probability of 80% sits comfortably above the threshold at which this site's tips have historically performed well. Over 2.5 is running in line with the site average (72.8%). No significant deviation either way. Tuesdays have a measurably higher success rate in the historical data. This provides a minor additional positive signal.
The stated probability of 80% sits comfortably above the threshold at which this site's tips have historically performed well. Over 2.5 is running in line with the site average (72.8%). No significant deviation either way. Tuesdays have a measurably higher success rate in the historical data. This provides a minor additional positive signal.
A stated probability of 50% is below the site's average threshold. Treat as speculative. 1 is running in line with the site average (75.4%). No significant deviation either way. Tuesdays have a measurably higher success rate in the historical data. This provides a minor additional positive signal.
A stated probability of 50% is below the site's average threshold. Treat as speculative. 1 is running in line with the site average (75.4%). No significant deviation either way. Tuesdays have a measurably higher success rate in the historical data. This provides a minor additional positive signal.
Analysis based on historical win rate data and stated probability. Not financial advice. Please bet responsibly.
* Our proprietary E-A-T system evaluates team chemistry indexes, xG (Expected Goals) differentials, historical referee metrics, and live odds variance before outputting a confidence probability.
All results logged before kickoff. Void tips excluded from accuracy calculation. Click any match for full details.
Market Consistency Tracker
Rolling 30-day windows over 90 days • steadiest markets first
A high win rate is only part of the picture. This tracker shows whether each market delivers consistently or in streaks. Steady markets produce more predictable returns over time.
1avg 75.1% • range ±3%
Steady
75%0-30d
78.1%30-60d
72.2%60-90d
Win rate has been consistent across all three rolling windows. Reliable market for planning.
Over 2.5avg 72.7% • range ±4.5%
Steady
78.1%0-30d
70.8%30-60d
69.2%60-90d
Win rate has been consistent across all three rolling windows. Reliable market for planning.
2avg 79.5% • range ±6.7%
Variable
73.3%0-30d
78.6%30-60d
86.7%60-90d
Some variation across rolling windows. Performance is directional but not uniform.
1Xavg 79% • range ±7.2%
Variable
80%0-30d
85.7%30-60d
71.4%60-90d
Some variation across rolling windows. Performance is directional but not uniform.
Over 1.5avg 68.8% • range ±9.7%
Variable
72.7%0-30d
76.5%30-60d
57.1%60-90d
Some variation across rolling windows. Performance is directional but not uniform.
Steady = <=12pp spread. Variable = 13-25pp. Volatile = >25pp. Min. 5 tips per window to display. Windows run oldest to newest (left to right).
Market Depth Index
Volume vs accuracy • where confidence is highest • last 90 days
Each market is scored on two factors: how often it is published (volume) and how often it succeeds (accuracy). Markets with high depth on both measures represent the strongest areas of the site's analytical record.
1
1
Volume280 tips
Accuracy75.4%
High confidence -- published frequently and delivers.
STRONG211W / 69L
2
Over 2.5
Volume81 tips
Accuracy72.8%
Selective publishing with strong returns. Targeted edge.
STRONG59W / 22L
3
2
Volume58 tips
Accuracy79.3%
Selective publishing with strong returns. Targeted edge.
STRONG46W / 12L
4
Over 1.5
Volume46 tips
Accuracy71.7%
Selective publishing with strong returns. Targeted edge.
STRONG33W / 13L
5
1X
Volume38 tips
Accuracy78.9%
Selective publishing with strong returns. Targeted edge.
STRONG30W / 8L
6
X2
Volume6 tips
Accuracy83.3%
Selective publishing with strong returns. Targeted edge.
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