Direct Win Prediction

Direct Win Prediction


Mon, Mar 18, 2024

No predictions available for this date.

Tip Explainers
Click any question to see the data behind it
Celje vs Mura Over 2.5
Our model assigns a win probability of 80% to this outcome. Historically, Over 2.5 tips have settled at 72.2% over the last 90 days (79 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
72.2% on Over 2.5 80% probability
Over the last 90 days, Over 2.5 tips have returned 57 wins from 79 settled tips (72.2%). This is broadly in line with our site-wide average of 75.9%.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Port Over 2.5
Our model assigns a win probability of 80% to this outcome. Historically, Over 2.5 tips have settled at 72.2% over the last 90 days (79 tips graded). In China Super League, our record stands at 83.3% over the same period. These factors together support the recommendation.
72.2% on Over 2.5 80% probability 83.3% in China Super League
Over the last 90 days, Over 2.5 tips have returned 57 wins from 79 settled tips (72.2%). This is broadly in line with our site-wide average of 75.9%.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Levski Sofia vs Dunav Ruse 1
Our model assigns a win probability of 60% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 75.2% over the last 90 days (282 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
75.2% on 1 60% probability
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 212 wins from 282 settled tips (75.2%). This is broadly in line with our site-wide average of 75.9%.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Haukar vs Throttur Vogar 1
Our model assigns a win probability of 50% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 75.2% over the last 90 days (282 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
75.2% on 1 50% probability
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 212 wins from 282 settled tips (75.2%). This is broadly in line with our site-wide average of 75.9%.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City 1
Our model assigns a win probability of 50% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 75.2% over the last 90 days (282 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
75.2% on 1 50% probability
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 212 wins from 282 settled tips (75.2%). This is broadly in line with our site-wide average of 75.9%.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Beijing Guoan vs Liaoning Tieren 1
Our model assigns a win probability of 50% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 75.2% over the last 90 days (282 tips graded). In China Super League, our record stands at 83.3% over the same period. These factors together support the recommendation.
75.2% on 1 50% probability 83.3% in China Super League
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 212 wins from 282 settled tips (75.2%). This is broadly in line with our site-wide average of 75.9%.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
St Patricks vs Wexford 1
Our model assigns a win probability of 50% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 75.2% over the last 90 days (282 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
75.2% on 1 50% probability
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 212 wins from 282 settled tips (75.2%). This is broadly in line with our site-wide average of 75.9%.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Flora vs Nomme Utd 1
Our model assigns a win probability of 50% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 75.2% over the last 90 days (282 tips graded). In Estonia Meistriliiga, our record stands at 50% over the same period. These factors together support the recommendation.
75.2% on 1 50% probability 50% in Estonia Meistriliiga
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 212 wins from 282 settled tips (75.2%). This is broadly in line with our site-wide average of 75.9%.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.

Today's Tips Ranked
Fri 17 Jul 2026 • by win probability
High Conf.
Celje vs Mura
Over 2.5 Slovenia PRVA Liga 7:15 pm
80%
prob
High Conf.
Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Port
Over 2.5 China Super League 1:00 pm
80%
prob
Solid Pick
Levski Sofia vs Dunav Ruse
1 Bulgaria EFBET League 7:15 pm
60%
prob
Solid Pick
Haukar vs Throttur Vogar
1 Iceland Division 2 8:15 pm
50%
prob
Solid Pick
Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City
1 Ireland FA Cup 7:45 pm
50%
prob
Solid Pick
Beijing Guoan vs Liaoning Tieren
1 China Super League 12:35 pm
50%
prob
Solid Pick
St Patricks vs Wexford
1 Ireland FA Cup 7:45 pm
50%
prob
Solid Pick
Flora vs Nomme Utd
1 Estonia Meistriliiga 5:00 pm
50%
prob

Statistical Analysis
Friday • site avg 75.9% • evidence-based
Celje vs Mura
Over 2.5 Slovenia PRVA Liga 7:15 pm
Strong case
Score: 74/100
The stated probability of 80% sits comfortably above the threshold at which this site's tips have historically performed well. Over 2.5 is running in line with the site average (72.2%). No significant deviation either way.
Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Port
Over 2.5 China Super League 1:00 pm
Strong case
Score: 76/100
The stated probability of 80% sits comfortably above the threshold at which this site's tips have historically performed well. Over 2.5 is running in line with the site average (72.2%). No significant deviation either way. China Super League is one of the stronger-performing competitions in the historical record (83.3%). Provides additional support for this tip.
Levski Sofia vs Dunav Ruse
1 Bulgaria EFBET League 7:15 pm
Supported
Score: 68/100
At 60%, the stated probability is in the workable range but does not represent a high-conviction signal. 1 is running in line with the site average (75.2%). No significant deviation either way.
Haukar vs Throttur Vogar
1 Iceland Division 2 8:15 pm
Supported
Score: 65/100
A stated probability of 50% is below the site's average threshold. Treat as speculative. 1 is running in line with the site average (75.2%). No significant deviation either way.
Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City
1 Ireland FA Cup 7:45 pm
Supported
Score: 65/100
A stated probability of 50% is below the site's average threshold. Treat as speculative. 1 is running in line with the site average (75.2%). No significant deviation either way.
Beijing Guoan vs Liaoning Tieren
1 China Super League 12:35 pm
Supported
Score: 66/100
A stated probability of 50% is below the site's average threshold. Treat as speculative. 1 is running in line with the site average (75.2%). No significant deviation either way. China Super League is one of the stronger-performing competitions in the historical record (83.3%). Provides additional support for this tip.
St Patricks vs Wexford
1 Ireland FA Cup 7:45 pm
Supported
Score: 65/100
A stated probability of 50% is below the site's average threshold. Treat as speculative. 1 is running in line with the site average (75.2%). No significant deviation either way.
Flora vs Nomme Utd
1 Estonia Meistriliiga 5:00 pm
Marginal
Score: 60/100
A stated probability of 50% is below the site's average threshold. Treat as speculative. 1 is running in line with the site average (75.2%). No significant deviation either way. Estonia Meistriliiga has been a difficult competition in the historical record (50%). Factor this into your assessment.

Analysis based on historical win rate data and stated probability. Not financial advice. Please bet responsibly.



Verified Win Rate
Last 30 days • 158 settled tips
75.9%
Excellent
Won (120) 75.9%
Lost (38) 24.1%
120W
38L
120
Won
38
Lost
158
Settled
18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware

30-Day Betting Yield (ROI)
-1.58%
Rolling Yield
-2.5 U
Profit (Flat 1U)

Data Processing Transparency
What our model analyzed today
Data Points
12,000+
Matches Scanned
140+
Active Tips
729

* Our proprietary E-A-T system evaluates team chemistry indexes, xG (Expected Goals) differentials, historical referee metrics, and live odds variance before outputting a confidence probability.


Public Results Record
Last 30 graded tips • updated after every result
93.3%
Accuracy
28
Won
2
Lost
0
Void
30
Total
Date Match Market Result
16 Jul 2026Ferencvaros vs Vojvodina
Europa League Qualifier
1✓ Won
16 Jul 2026Pyunik Yerevan vs Marsaxlokk
Conference League Qualifier
1✓ Won
16 Jul 2026Palmeiras U20 vs Corinthians U20
Brasileiro U20
1✓ Won
16 Jul 2026Zalgiris vs Petrovac
Conference League Qualifier
1✓ Won
16 Jul 2026Afturelding vs Leiknir
Iceland Division 1
1✓ Won
16 Jul 2026Vestri vs Qarabag
Europa League Qualifier
Over 2.5✓ Won
16 Jul 2026Derry City vs CSKA Sofia
Europa League Qualifier
Over 1.5✓ Won
16 Jul 2026Shkendija vs Europa FC
Conference League Qualifier
1✓ Won
15 Jul 2026Lyon vs Servette
Club Friendly
Over 2.5✓ Won
15 Jul 2026Patro Eisden vs St Truiden
Club Friendly
Over 2.5✓ Won

All results logged before kickoff. Void tips excluded from accuracy calculation. Click any match for full details.


Market Consistency Tracker
Rolling 30-day windows over 90 days • steadiest markets first

A high win rate is only part of the picture. This tracker shows whether each market delivers consistently or in streaks. Steady markets produce more predictable returns over time.

1 avg 75.3% • range ±3%
Steady
76.3%
0-30d
77.7%
30-60d
71.8%
60-90d

Win rate has been consistent across all three rolling windows. Reliable market for planning.

Over 2.5 avg 72.8% • range ±4.4%
Steady
76.7%
0-30d
67.9%
30-60d
73.9%
60-90d

Win rate has been consistent across all three rolling windows. Reliable market for planning.

2 avg 80.3% • range ±6.6%
Variable
77.8%
0-30d
75%
30-60d
88.2%
60-90d

Some variation across rolling windows. Performance is directional but not uniform.

1X avg 79.9% • range ±8.4%
Variable
80%
0-30d
88.2%
30-60d
71.4%
60-90d

Some variation across rolling windows. Performance is directional but not uniform.

Over 1.5 avg 67.2% • range ±14.5%
Volatile
72.7%
0-30d
78.9%
30-60d
50%
60-90d

Wide spread across rolling windows. Strong runs followed by weaker periods. Streak-dependent.

Steady = <=12pp spread. Variable = 13-25pp. Volatile = >25pp. Min. 5 tips per window to display. Windows run oldest to newest (left to right).


Market Depth Index
Volume vs accuracy • where confidence is highest • last 90 days

Each market is scored on two factors: how often it is published (volume) and how often it succeeds (accuracy). Markets with high depth on both measures represent the strongest areas of the site's analytical record.

1
1
Volume 282 tips
Accuracy 75.2%
High confidence -- published frequently and delivers.
STRONG 212W / 70L
2
Over 2.5
Volume 79 tips
Accuracy 72.2%
Selective publishing with strong returns. Targeted edge.
STRONG 57W / 22L
3
2
Volume 58 tips
Accuracy 79.3%
Selective publishing with strong returns. Targeted edge.
STRONG 46W / 12L
4
Over 1.5
Volume 46 tips
Accuracy 71.7%
Selective publishing with strong returns. Targeted edge.
STRONG 33W / 13L
5
1X
Volume 39 tips
Accuracy 79.5%
Selective publishing with strong returns. Targeted edge.
STRONG 31W / 8L
6
X2
Volume 6 tips
Accuracy 83.3%
Selective publishing with strong returns. Targeted edge.
STRONG 5W / 1L

Min. 3 settled tips required to appear.


Performance by Market
1X Top market
8W / 2L • 10 tips
80%
2 Top market
14W / 4L • 18 tips
77.8%
Over 2.5 Top market
23W / 7L • 30 tips
76.7%
1 Top market
58W / 18L • 76 tips
76.3%
Over 1.5 Top market
16W / 6L • 22 tips
72.7%
X2 Average
1W / 1L • 2 tips
50%

League Momentum
7-day rate vs 30-day baseline • hottest first
Europa League Qualifier
0%baseline 66.7%100%
100%
recent
+33.3pp
Club Friendly
0%baseline 75%100%
100%
recent
+25pp
Conference League Qualifier
0%baseline 80%100%
100%
recent
+20pp
Argentina Primera Women
0%baseline 100%100%
100%
recent
+0pp
Finland Veikkausliiga
0%baseline 80%100%
80%
recent
+0pp
World Cup 2026
0%baseline 100%100%
100%
recent
+0pp
UCL Qualifiers
0%baseline 80%100%
75%
recent
-5pp

pp = percentage points vs 30-day baseline. Grey marker = baseline position.


Win Rate Grid
Market type × day of week • last 180 days
Market MonTueWedThuFriSatSun Total
1 78% 86% 84% 73% 62% 73% 65% 75%
1X 83% 92% 71% 100% 71% 80% 83%
2 69% 82% 83% 78% 67% 75% 80% 76%
BTTS
Over 1.5 88% 75% 62% 74% 80% 100% 75%
Over 2.5 85% 71% 72% 76% 58% 73% 100% 74%
X2 67% 83%
Key: <42% 42-54% 55-64% 65-74% >=75%

75.9%
30-day win rate
158 verified tips
81%
7-Day Rate
120
Tips Won
38
Tips Lost
158
Settled
Full Results →


See More Free Predictions


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