Our model assigns a win probability of 80% to this outcome. Historically, Over 2.5 tips have settled at 68.4% over the last 90 days (76 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
68.4% on Over 2.580% probability
Over the last 90 days, Over 2.5 tips have returned 52 wins from 76 settled tips (68.4%). This is below our site-wide average of 77.8%. The recommendation is still made but with reduced confidence weighting.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Almere vs Jong PSVOver 2.5
Our model assigns a win probability of 80% to this outcome. Historically, Over 2.5 tips have settled at 68.4% over the last 90 days (76 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
68.4% on Over 2.580% probability
Over the last 90 days, Over 2.5 tips have returned 52 wins from 76 settled tips (68.4%). This is below our site-wide average of 77.8%. The recommendation is still made but with reduced confidence weighting.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Galatasaray vs Corum1
Our model assigns a win probability of 60% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 77.2% over the last 90 days (267 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
77.2% on 160% probability
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 206 wins from 267 settled tips (77.2%). This is broadly in line with our site-wide average of 77.8%.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Sporting CP vs Vitoria Guimaraes1
Our model assigns a win probability of 50% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 77.2% over the last 90 days (267 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
77.2% on 150% probability
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 206 wins from 267 settled tips (77.2%). This is broadly in line with our site-wide average of 77.8%.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Waterford vs Athlone1
Our model assigns a win probability of 50% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 77.2% over the last 90 days (267 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
77.2% on 150% probability
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 206 wins from 267 settled tips (77.2%). This is broadly in line with our site-wide average of 77.8%.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Fiorentina vs Benevento1
Our model assigns a win probability of 50% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 77.2% over the last 90 days (267 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
77.2% on 150% probability
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 206 wins from 267 settled tips (77.2%). This is broadly in line with our site-wide average of 77.8%.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
BFC Daugivpils vs Ogre United1
Our model assigns a win probability of 50% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 77.2% over the last 90 days (267 tips graded). These factors together support the recommendation.
77.2% on 150% probability
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 206 wins from 267 settled tips (77.2%). This is broadly in line with our site-wide average of 77.8%.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
Ekranas vs FK Minija2
Our model assigns a win probability of 20% to this outcome. Historically, 2 tips have settled at 73.4% over the last 90 days (64 tips graded). In Lithuania I Lyga, our record stands at 60% over the same period. These factors together support the recommendation.
73.4% on 220% probability60% in Lithuania I Lyga
Over the last 90 days, 2 tips have returned 47 wins from 64 settled tips (73.4%). This is broadly in line with our site-wide average of 77.8%.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker (shortening or lengthening of the price after publication) may also signal late information entering the market.
The stated probability of 80% sits comfortably above the threshold at which this site's tips have historically performed well. Over 2.5 has tracked below the site-wide average over 90 days (68.4%). This reduces the overall confidence rating.
The stated probability of 80% sits comfortably above the threshold at which this site's tips have historically performed well. Over 2.5 has tracked below the site-wide average over 90 days (68.4%). This reduces the overall confidence rating.
At 60%, the stated probability is in the workable range but does not represent a high-conviction signal. 1 is running in line with the site average (77.2%). No significant deviation either way.
A stated probability of 50% is below the site's average threshold. Treat as speculative. 1 is running in line with the site average (77.2%). No significant deviation either way.
A stated probability of 50% is below the site's average threshold. Treat as speculative. 1 is running in line with the site average (77.2%). No significant deviation either way.
A stated probability of 50% is below the site's average threshold. Treat as speculative. 1 is running in line with the site average (77.2%). No significant deviation either way.
A stated probability of 50% is below the site's average threshold. Treat as speculative. 1 is running in line with the site average (77.2%). No significant deviation either way.
A stated probability of 20% is below the site's average threshold. Treat as speculative. 2 is running in line with the site average (73.4%). No significant deviation either way. Lithuania I Lyga has been a difficult competition in the historical record (60%). Factor this into your assessment.
Analysis based on historical win rate data and stated probability. Not financial advice. Please bet responsibly.
* Our proprietary E-A-T system evaluates team chemistry indexes, xG (Expected Goals) differentials, historical referee metrics, and live odds variance before outputting a confidence probability.
All results logged before kickoff. Void tips excluded from accuracy calculation. Click any match for full details.
Market Consistency Tracker
Rolling 30-day windows over 90 days • steadiest markets first
A high win rate is only part of the picture. This tracker shows whether each market delivers consistently or in streaks. Steady markets produce more predictable returns over time.
1avg 77.2% • range ±3.6%
Steady
81.8%0-30d
75%30-60d
74.7%60-90d
Win rate has been consistent across all three rolling windows. Reliable market for planning.
1Xavg 78.5% • range ±5.5%
Steady
71.4%0-30d
81.8%30-60d
82.4%60-90d
Win rate has been consistent across all three rolling windows. Reliable market for planning.
2avg 73.5% • range ±5.8%
Steady
68.4%0-30d
80%30-60d
72%60-90d
Win rate has been consistent across all three rolling windows. Reliable market for planning.
Over 1.5avg 78.7% • range ±6.5%
Variable
85.7%0-30d
72.7%30-60d
77.8%60-90d
Some variation across rolling windows. Performance is directional but not uniform.
Over 2.5avg 68.9% • range ±7%
Variable
61.9%0-30d
75.9%30-60d
69%60-90d
Some variation across rolling windows. Performance is directional but not uniform.
Steady = <=12pp spread. Variable = 13-25pp. Volatile = >25pp. Min. 5 tips per window to display. Windows run oldest to newest (left to right).
Market Depth Index
Volume vs accuracy • where confidence is highest • last 90 days
Each market is scored on two factors: how often it is published (volume) and how often it succeeds (accuracy). Markets with high depth on both measures represent the strongest areas of the site's analytical record.
1
1
Volume267 tips
Accuracy77.2%
High confidence -- published frequently and delivers.
STRONG206W / 61L
2
Over 2.5
Volume76 tips
Accuracy68.4%
Selective publishing with strong returns. Targeted edge.
STRONG52W / 24L
3
2
Volume64 tips
Accuracy73.4%
Selective publishing with strong returns. Targeted edge.
STRONG47W / 17L
4
Over 1.5
Volume60 tips
Accuracy78.3%
Selective publishing with strong returns. Targeted edge.
STRONG47W / 13L
5
1X
Volume35 tips
Accuracy80%
Selective publishing with strong returns. Targeted edge.
STRONG28W / 7L
6
X2
Volume4 tips
Accuracy75%
Selective publishing with strong returns. Targeted edge.
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